I have highlighted some of the state of the union addresses by Herbert Hoover in the past because I see the Great depression as a time with certain parallels to the present economic hardship. Let's look at the 1970s instead now.
Here's Richard Nixon from 1971, with what was considered a conservative agenda in 1971 based on balancing the federal budget and rolling back centralised governance.
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This is a good and in-depth interview with Bill Black conducted by George Mason economics professor Russ Roberts. I highly recommend your listening to it
Read more »Given market positioning and the anticipated long-term repo operation at the end of the month, it is tempting to see this move above $1.3250 as a breakout. Is it a breakout
Read more »One conclusion from the Fed's actions is that it doesn't care as much about its inflation target as it does about improving the unemployment rate. Thus, it will err on the side of letting inflation rise, if it would improve unemployment. But holding rates too low too long fueled the housing bubble. Repeating the same game will have consequences of malinvestment in the form of new bubbles in the economy. The Fed hopes to restore employment before the negative consequences of loose monetary policy show up
Read more »This is how it's going down in Greece right now. The sentiment is very Anti-German on the eve of the austerity/bailout decision. The debt haircut and writedowns coming of upwards of 50% is a default in everything but name. Technical default is a real possibility as well
Read more »The dollar is mixed against the majors and EMs but largely remains confined to recent ranges. The EuroStoxx 600 slid for a second straight day, currently down 0.5%; MSCI Asia index holds recent highs. Demand in Greek bill sale eased slightly and refinancing costs moved higher; Portugal’s 10-year up 22bp
Read more »Gingrich Ties to Fannie, Freddie Said to Extend to Speaker Days – Bloomberg Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich had ties to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae during his time as speaker of the House from 1995 to 1999, adding to questions about the nature of his relationship with the home mortgage companies. tags: fannie freddie-mac
Read more »Two weeks ago I highlighted the fact that Indonesia has re-attained an investment grade rating, continuing the upward path it has been on since the Asian crisis derailed the Asian growth story 15 years ago. Indeed, we should expect emerging markets, and Asian emerging markets in particular to outperform developed economies
Read more »Ahead of the next LTRO at the end of the month, Spanish and Italian bonds may begin consolidating after the large moves seen over the past month. The scope for Italian out performance in the month ahead appears somewhat more limited than over the past month. Indeed, the 5.5% yield level on the Italy's 10-year generic bond may prove a bit sticky. It also corresponds to trend line on the weekly charts, drawn off the yield low of 3.7% in mid-Oct 2010. Spain's 10-year yield decline is slowing as it slips through the 5% threshold
Read more »What I have been saying throughout 2011 is that margin compression is going to happen no matter what. The cuts have been made and so margins cannot grow any higher from cuts. It has to come from operating leverage that increases as a result of revenue growth
Read more »I have been making a big deal about strength in the household series of employment and the trend in IUCs. These are statistical series that do not get revised out of recognition. They often tell the tale at turning points. Given that past household survey employment and IUC trends have persisted, the current bond market rally will be even more insane and the stock market will probably continue to work higher, even though the favorable seasonable window has closed.
Read more »Here’s a good video performance by Marshall Auerback on BNN’s Business Day program. Marshall thinks the Greek default deal is actually a relatively good one. But he sees a Portuguese default after the Greek default as a real possibility and envisions a scenario in which Portugal and Spain look to extract similar terms. Moreover, the quid pro quo for Greece is austerity – and that makes getting debt loads down harder when implemented during a downturn.
Read more »Cyprus is not an important player on the world’s financial stage but it does bear noting that banking and sovereign debt problems run both wide and deep in the European Union. The latest news underscoring these difficulties comes via Fitch, which has just downgraded the largest banks in Cyprus to below investment-grade status.
Read more »Since I have a special affection for the monetarist camp, I tilted to their view in that the ECB has indeed carried out a coup and may have pulled Europe of spiralling depression, just in the nick of time. (This does not mean it can ever save monetary union in its current structure, but that is another matter.)
Here’s how I put it in May 2010 about Fannie and Freddie’s domination of the mortgage market:
Read more »I was thinking about that last post I wrote on the euro zone and regulatory forbearance. They say a picture is worth a thousand words. So here’s a picture that captures my thinking pretty well.
Read more »"You’re wrong. She is a phony. But on the other hand you’re right. She isn’t a phony because she’s a real phony. She really believes all this crap she believes. You can’t talk her out of it…. She’s nuts."
-Of Holly Golightly, from Truman Capote’s Breakfast at Tiffany’s (1958)
Read more »By Marc Chandler
The private sector involvement to reduce Greece’s debt burden remain unresolved. Officials continue to talk as if it will still be any day now. Some observers attribute the euro’s firmer tone today to greater confidence now that a new twist has been added.
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